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solarbirdLast night – Tuesday night – Gamers Nexus posted a three hour deep dive on how Trump’s tariff regime is completely fucking one segment of the computer industry: custom computers and components including gaming PCs.
I have now watched all of it.
IT IS WORTH YOUR TIME.
I never say that shit about a video this long but it is a documentary of goddamn note. I haven’t seen anything else close to this, showing not just numbers, but how those numbers compound – 145% isn’t a limit, some of the tariffs are additive on top of each other – and most of all how stupidly complicated they’ve made it.
Let’s say you’ve got a power supply. Let’s say it’s at 145% as a base unit, ’cause right now it probably is. That’s not the only tariff – that’s just one of them. Percentage aluminium by weight? You’ve got to figure that out, and you need to know where it came from, because that’s an additional tariff. Sometimes. Percentage steel by weight? Same question, same fluctuating situation.
How the fuck do you figure out where the aluminium legs on a resistor came from?
The transparency from Hyte in particular – it’s stunning. They’re just dumping pricing and strategy trade secrets in this video because they literally can’t do business in the US as things stood at time of shooting. They’ve cancelled all shipments to the US and once they’re out of stock already in country, they’re out of stock.
As they say, most people won’t really notice until shelves go empty.
And this is just one industry.
$600 for a PC case, anyone?
Posted via Solarbird{y|z|yz}, Collected.
Thank you!
Date: 2025-04-23 05:39 pm (UTC)Re: Thank you!
Date: 2025-04-23 05:56 pm (UTC)It's like a clown show but every clown is Pennywise.
Re: Thank you!
Date: 2025-04-23 06:34 pm (UTC)It would affect most if not all complex products -- computers, vehicles, appliances, medical and scientific instruments, etc. Almost nothing is wholly made in America anymore. Even if it's assembled here, which is all the label requires, the components usually come from somewhere else with cheaper labor and less protection. Plus all the single-origin things like produce that come from a tariffed country.
>>and some went directly to Trump, who actually heard them. And for now - for now - they're pulling back.<<
Two problems with this:
1) He'll forget it 5 minutes later.
2) Other countries won't want to deal with the unpredictable flailing, and will seek other markets, leading a similar end.
>>It's like a clown show but every clown is Pennywise.<<
Tch. Clowns are much more competent. It's a demanding job; there are actually clown colleges to teach the skills.
Re: Thank you!
Date: 2025-04-23 07:12 pm (UTC)As for all the details of production, I was very aware of all of that.
"He'll forget it 5 minutes later"
Hence my "for now" in "they're pulling back."
The Democrats need to say, "Look, when we were in power, manufacturing jobs rose for the first time in decades" and show the graphs. "We want to do more of that." Grab the "bring manufacturing jobs back to the US" banner. They've tried that - genuinely - but nobody listened; this might be an opening for getting through to people.
"Clowns are much more competent. It's a demanding job; there are actually clown colleges to teach the skills."
What can I say? Some people just have a gift.
A terrible, terrible gift.
Re: Thank you!
Date: 2025-04-23 09:29 pm (UTC)Well, if unsustainable prices cause inability to provide products and/or demand failure, then the result will be empty shelves, unless stores can source an alternative that is affordable and appealing.
>>The Democrats need to say, "Look, when we were in power, manufacturing jobs rose for the first time in decades" and show the graphs. "We want to do more of that." Grab the "bring manufacturing jobs back to the US" banner. They've tried that - genuinely - but nobody listened; this might be an opening for getting through to people.<<
I think the modern Democrats are too detached from working people to succeed with that. Which is sad, because they did have a good run on job improvement. The problem is that the whole society is so broken that people still feel poor. If the job doesn't pay enough to live on, rent is too high, and they can't afford a doctor visit -- they feel poor, because they are poor. That's when this problem occurs:
Democrats: "Things are going well. Let's do more of it."
Republicans: "Your economic pain is real. Democrats and immigrants are to blame."
People are more likely to vote for someone who pretends they will address a problem than for someone who says there is no problem and thus will definitely not address it.
We need a party better equipped to represent the needs of the 99% and that is not happening.
Re: Thank you!
Date: 2025-04-24 01:58 am (UTC)If you're sending a shipment by actual ship, the rules could change dozens of times while your product is in transit. It's not just tariffs, the US is making up new fees like $8 million to dock your ship each voyage, if it wasn't built in a US shipyard. Or new reporting requirements not just on the country of origin of metal products (where the majority of the value was introduced), but where it was last melted. It's hard to quote to customers in the US when your paperwork and fees can rise unpredictably. Much less hassle, and more predictable profit, if you target customers in more stable regimes.
When the UK introduced a wad of new paperwork after Brexit, it made it less attractive to court customers in the UK. On top of the cost of production, we'd have to spend weeks just reading all documents, and modifying our software to autocomplete the forms. And that was a one-time change. When the rules change weekly, it's tempting to move certain quote requests to the bottom of the queue.
Re: Thank you!
Date: 2025-04-24 07:09 am (UTC)That sucks. :(
>>It's hard to quote to customers in the US when your paperwork and fees can rise unpredictably. Much less hassle, and more predictable profit, if you target customers in more stable regimes.<<
That's what I'd do, look for other markets. Maybe it'll teach some people a lesson, others being too stupid to learn.
Re: Thank you!
Date: 2025-04-24 11:38 am (UTC)And since the current US strongman has torn up trade agreements that he himself signed, nobody is going to have any faith that future US promises will last long enough for a shipment to be delivered after a contract is signed.
Re: Thank you!
Date: 2025-04-24 09:10 pm (UTC)If ever, because often it does not.
>>And since the current US strongman has torn up trade agreements that he himself signed, nobody is going to have any faith that future US promises will last long enough for a shipment to be delivered after a contract is signed.<<
Well reasoned.
So the main questions are:
* Can businesses outside America find replacements for such a large market? For some it may be easy, for others difficult or impossible.
* Can America find replacements for things it used to buy from people it has mistreated to the point they won't sell there anymore? Some will be easier to replace than others.
* And how fast can smugglers adapt to the shifting market? Probably quite fast.
Re: Thank you!
Date: 2025-04-24 10:06 pm (UTC)https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RoHS
There is a sizeable amount of manufacturing in the US, but a non-trivial amount is used for fulfilling military production contracts. US DFARS requirements mean that any factory in the US that has previously provided military products must prioritize DPAS-rated government orders over civilian orders. So, Nike could find an existing factory in the US to make sneakers. But if Homeland Security orders a million combat boots for new INS hires, you won't get your sneakers in time for the Black Friday sales.
https://www.dcma.mil/DPAS/
Of course, you could build new factories in the US. Thanks to the CHIPS Act, Intel, Global Foundries, Samsung and other high-tech companies were inspired to start building factories in the US to expand semiconductor production, as the US government promised financial and legislative support.
Except before the chip manufacturers even finished building their factories, Trump said the rules are changing. The companies could see less profit, or even lose money. Investors now know they can't trust conditions to remain stable, even for strategically-important suppliers of products with military applications. If you run a toy factory, or make plumbing fixtures, banks would be reluctant to loan you money to set up a factory in Alabama or Mississippi instead of Shenzhen or Kulim.
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/trump-to-kill-chips-act-not-that-simple-defunding/741963/
Americans bought Canadian alcohol during Prohibition, despite not being allowed to bring it into the US, so I expect there will still be sales of maple syrup and aluminum going on.
https://youtu.be/vffu6FG4YP4?t=287
Re: Thank you!
Date: 2025-04-25 08:15 am (UTC)That's about what I figured.
>>So, Nike could find an existing factory in the US to make sneakers. But if Homeland Security orders a million combat boots for new INS hires, you won't get your sneakers in time for the Black Friday sales.<<
Not a great thing.
>>Of course, you could build new factories in the US. <<
That's a good idea anyway. Long supply lines are always vulnerable.
>>Investors now know they can't trust conditions to remain stable, even for strategically-important suppliers of products with military applications. <<
Sadly so.
>>Americans bought Canadian alcohol during Prohibition, despite not being allowed to bring it into the US, so I expect there will still be sales of maple syrup and aluminum going on.<<
True. The main question is whether it comes through official channels and the government gets their cut ... or not.